AI 同时武装了攻方和守方——攻方拿到的是规模化的钓鱼、深伪与漏洞利用提速,守方拿到的是分诊、检测与响应的自动化。但把两把新枪放下之后,决定一家机构生死的那 80% 风险,答案仍然是三十年前那三样:抗钓鱼 MFA、按实际被利用清单打补丁、离线不可变备份并演练恢复。这不是保守,是算术:身份攻击里 99% 以上走的是密码,而抗钓鱼 MFA 把这一类风险降 >99%。AI 是放大器,不是地基替代品——把预算砸在没打补丁的资产上,等于给漏水的船装涡轮增压。本图因此按「基本功 ROI」而不是按「技术先进度」排序:先把地基做完,再谈智能体化 SOC。 AI armed the attacker and the defender in the same breath — phishing, deepfakes and exploit development at scale on one side; triage, detection and response automation on the other. Put both guns down, however, and the 80% of risk that actually decides an organisation’s survival still answers to the same three things it did thirty years ago: phishing-resistant MFA, patching by what is actually exploited, and offline immutable backups that have been restored in a drill. That is not conservatism but arithmetic: passwords carry over 99% of identity attacks, and phishing-resistant MFA cuts that risk by more than 99%. AI amplifies; it does not replace the floor — spend on AI while assets go unpatched and you have turbocharged a leaking boat. This map is therefore ordered by return on fundamentals rather than by sophistication: finish the floor, then talk about the agentic SOC.
五大版图外加一份产品指南:攻防双轨杀伤链(侦察→初始访问→立足→提权→横向移动→驻留→窃取勒索,每段红蓝对垒)、Security for AI 新纵列(AI 本身成为新攻击面)、基本功 ROI 三梯队、全球 × 中国厂商竞技场(并购潮)、机会与雷区矩阵(按角色筛选)。深伪技术与 news 图擦边——那里讲舆论信息战,本图讲它作为金融诈骗与社工入口的攻击链。 Five maps plus a product guide: the dual-track kill chain (recon → initial access → foothold → privilege → lateral → persistence → exfiltration, red vs blue at every stage), the Security-for-AI column (AI itself as a new attack surface), the fundamentals ROI ladder, the global × China vendor arena (the M&A wave), and the opportunity-and-minefield matrix filterable by role. Deepfakes overlap with the news map — that one covers information warfare, this one covers deepfakes as the attack chain for financial fraud and social engineering.